AABC 2013: Battery design and EV/PHEV performance
11 February 2013
According to Christophe Pillot from Avicenne Energy, raw materials account for 50 to 80% of Li-ion battery (LIB) cells costs. The detailed cost structure for Japanese, Chinese & Korean makers in 2012 can be seen in the graph below:
Regarding the cathode active materials for LIB, LCO is still predominant, but the need for NMC and LMO has greatly increased in the last years (39% LCO, 30% NMC, 18% LMO). Total demand for active materials was 75 000 tons in 2012. According to Avicenne Energy, by 2025, demand will reach 330,000 tons (24% LCO, 37% NMC, 21% LFP, 21% LMO).
Regarding the anode, natural graphite has become the preferred choice for most cell manufacturers, as can be seen in the graph below:
HEV market forecasts
According to Dr. Anderman, Toyota has further strengthened its position as a leader in the HEV sector over the last year. Its estimated production in 2016 is now more than 1,4 million HEVs, representing more than a fifth of Toyota’s HEV production. Honda is still the second most important manufacturer of HEVs. The rest of the market combined barely equals Honda's HEV production.
The total prediction by Avicenne Energy is 2,5 million HEV in 2015, 5 million in 2020.
Regarding the battery market, NiMH resilience to Li-ion market penetration is still strong, but the major expansion of the Li-ion HEV business has finally started in 2012. The market share for Li-ion in HEV applications is expected to reach the $1 billion threshold in 2015 (from $400 million in 2012).
“There is a potential for expansion of mild-hybrid architectures in Europe and possibly in China, but not before 2018” says Dr. Anderman.
EV market forecasts
The market was facing, and still faces, difficulties. However, Tesla surprised many by being able to launch the Model S and achieve profitability in Q1 2013.
According to AAB, Toyota will be the OEM producing the most PHEVs, with 60,000 in 2016. Geographically, the US will lead the market with 35% of the market share, followed by China with 30%, Europe with 25%, and 10% for Japan and the rest of the world.
Regarding EVs, Renault-Nissan production has been re-evaluated thanks to the launch of the ZOE. AAB estimates that the group will produce more than 60,000 full EVs per year as of 2015, making them the biggest producer by far. Geographically, Europe will represent 30% of the EV market in 2020, followed by the US with 25%, China with 25%, leaving 10% for Japan and 10% for the rest of the world.
According to Avicenne Energy, in 2012 the total rechargeable battery market for x-EVs was worth just over $2,5 billion at cell level, but is expected to reach $10 billion by 2025 (more than $5 billion only for Li-ion batteries used in BEV).